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NFL Betting Preview - Conference Championship Scouting Reports for 1/21

From RJ Bell,
Your Guide to sports betting.
FREE Newsletter. Sign Up Now!Jan 20 2007

Pro Football Info Worth Betting

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Sunday, January 21st

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
NFC Championship (FOX 3 PM ET)

New Orleans is a solid team against the run with DT Hollis Thomas back from a four-game suspension, so Chicago QB Rex Grossman will need to take some shots downfield to WR Bernard Berrian like he did against the Seahawks. Saints CB Fred Thomas got burned on Philly WR Donte Stallworth's 75-yard touchdown catch last Saturday, and Grossman connected with Berrian on a 68-yard scoring strike the next day.

The Saints have numerous offensive weapons, which could pose serious problems for the Chicago defense. While rookie RB Reggie Bush is the least familiar with the cold conditions, he is still the most dangerous player on the field and the one Chicago defensive coordinator Ron Rivera fears the most due to his receiving skills. However, Bush will miss being on the fast track of the Superdome and should be less effective than he is indoors.

Chicago's once-dominant defense has surrendered an average of 25.8 points in five games since All-Pro DT Tommie Harris was injured and lost for the season against the Vikings.

The betting public is certainly pounding the Saints, something Chicago head coach Lovie Smith may choose to use as motivation for his squad. The Bears will not get any respect until they beat a quality opponent like the Saints, and they will be looking to make Soldier Field an advantage. However, New Orleans head coach Sean Payton played for Chicago during the 1987 strike season and is a native of the area, so he knows all about the team's tradition and the weather there.

New Orleans is 7-1 ATS last eight road games.

New Orleans is 3-0-1 ATS last four regular-season meetings with Chicago and 8-1-1 ATS last 10 overall, including preseason.

OVER is 9-1 in Chicago's last 10 home games.

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
AFC Championship (CBS 6:30 PM ET)

Former Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri broke the NFL postseason record with five field goals against the Ravens last Saturday, providing all of the team's scoring on a day Indy QB Peyton Manning turned in one of his worst performances. Vinatieri has 34 field goals in 19 playoff games and is much more experienced than his rookie replacement - New England's Stephen Gostkowski - who is a perfect 6-for-6 in this year's postseason, including a 50-yarder. Viniatieri also has never missed a FG in the RCA Dome, going a perfect 26-for-26.

The Patriots did not fully take advantage of the NFL's worst rush defense in the regular-season meeting between the teams back on November 6th, letting Manning control the pace of the game. Instead, New England QB Tom Brady was pressed to keep up with Manning and ended up throwing a season-high four interceptions. Indy safety Bob Sanders played in that game, notching one of those picks and also registering a team-high eight tackles. Sanders has been the key for the Colts defensively in the playoffs, helping them hold opponents to just 14 points in two games.

Brady and New England head coach Bill Belichick are 12-1 SU together in the playoffs, with the lone loss taking place at Denver in last year's divisional round.

The flu bug is running through the Patriots right now, as WR Troy Brown, DT Mike Wright, and T Ryan O'Callaghan were downgraded to questionable after missing practice on Wednesday.

Indy is 9-0 SU at home, going 6-3 ATS.

New England is 7-2 ATS last nine playoff games.

Indy has covered and won the last two meetings after New England went 8-0-1 ATS in the previous nine meetings.

New England is 5-0 SU & ATS last five games overall.

OVER is 9-3 in New England's last 12 as a road dog.

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