NFL Betting Recap - Super Bowl XLI Keys to Victory

From RJ Bell,
Your Guide to sports betting.
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How Indy QB Peyton Manning earned his first championship

Rain causes plenty of mistakes: Anybody who thought rain wouldn't be a factor in Super Bowl XLI was dead wrong. There were six turnovers in the first half of the Super Bowl and eight overall along with a missed field goal and PAT from Indy kicker Adam Vinatieri, the NFL's all-time postseason leader in field goals. Five of the turnovers were fumbles and were a direct result of failure to hold onto the ball in the wet weather. The Colts ultimately won the turnover battle and the game.

Indy learns special teams lesson on first play: It took just 14 seconds for Chicago rookie Devin Hester to score his seventh touchdown on a kick return, and the Colts did their best to keep the ball away from him the rest of the game. The amazing part is that they gave him the opportunity to return a kick at all after Hester was singled out as a difference maker for two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl.

QB mismatch proves to be the difference: Chicago's worst fear going into the Super Bowl was that embattled QB Rex Grossman would be forced to win the game. Grossman simply did not come through in the second half when the Bears needed him the most, throwing two costly interceptions, including one that was returned 56 yards for a touchdown by reserve cornerback Kevlin Hayden. That score turned a close game into a cover for the Colts, and Indy's Peyton Manning managed his team's offense perfectly when he needed to en route to earning MVP honors.

Colts dominate time of possession: Indy didn't do anything spectacular offensively outside of a 53-yard touchdown pass from Manning to Reggie Wayne in the first quarter. But the Colts held the ball nearly twice as long as the Bears with a surprisingly effective running game, led by veteran RB Dominic Rhodes. Much of the pregame attention was focused on stopping rookie Joseph Addai, but it was Rhodes who seemed to give the team a big boost whenever needed.

Injuries affect both teams: Chicago's running game wasn't nearly effective with Thomas Jones carrying the full load after Cedric Benson suffered a knee injury in the first quarter. Jones had the best game of any Bear with 112 yards on 15 carries, but the loss of Benson made it easier for the Colts to key solely on him. Indy's depth in the secondary was also a key advantage, as Nick Harper started the game despite an ankle injury before giving way to Hayden, who ended up scoring the decisive TD.

Dungy wins with conservative approach: A lot was made of the friendship between Indy's Tony Dungy and Chicago's Lovie Smith going into the Super Bowl. And there was definitely a mutual respect between the two throughout the game, as the Colts offense dominated the Bears defense at times and Dungy seemed happy to settle for field goals instead of going for the kill. That approach definitely could have backfired had Grossman not made so many mistakes but also kept Manning from forcing passes.

Friendship also helps bettors cash on the total: The OVER/UNDER total opened at 49.5 points and closed at 47 after public money moved the line. But it wasn't until Dungy decided not to kick a field goal and instead ran more time off the clock toward the end of the fourth quarter with the game clearly in hand that those same bettors could finally breathe a sigh of relief. A high-scoring first half put the game on pace for what looked like an easy OVER, but a conservative gameplan for both teams after halftime along with Dungy opting not to run up the score on Smith's squad led to the UNDER cashing.

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